Will George R.R. Martin publish an ASOIAF book in 2022?
Basic
51
Ṁ3317resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if "The Winds of Winter" or "A Dream of Spring" are released before December 31st 2022.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
"Surely not N+1 years!"
Which admittedly is not a heuristic which has served me well in the past.
Also, arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-the-winds-of-winter-book-six-o
https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/
new blog post. GRRM mentions that he "made a lot of progress on WINDS in 2020, and less in 2021"
Related questions
Related questions
Will George RR Martin publish Winds of Winter in 2024?
1% chance
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
72% chance
What year will the next book in the Game of Thrones (ASOIAF) book series be released?
When will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
85% chance
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
61% chance
Will George R.R. Martin finish Winds of Winter by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive
61% chance
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire be released by 2025?
5% chance
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
61% chance