Will George R.R. Martin publish an ASOIAF book in 2022?
10%
chance
Dec 31
M$2,531 bet
Resolves to YES if "The Winds of Winter" or "A Dream of Spring" are released before December 31st 2022.
MichaelWheatley

Michael Wheatley bought M$4 of YES14 days ago

"Surely not N+1 years!" Which admittedly is not a heuristic which has served me well in the past. Also, arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-the-winds-of-winter-book-six-o
thebaysix

Luke W bought M$75 of NO15 days ago

A couple YES bets came in recently. I'm not sure what reason they have for optimism. Correcting to below 10% where I think this belongs for now.
ValentinManes

Valentin Manès bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

Thanks @fortenforge !
fortenforge

Rahul Sridhar bought M$40 of NO3 months ago

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/ new blog post. GRRM mentions that he "made a lot of progress on WINDS in 2020, and less in 2021"
tigrennatenn

tigrennatenn bought M$30 of NO3 months ago

:-(