51
272
Ṁ3.3KṀ143
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if "The Winds of Winter" or "A Dream of Spring" are released before December 31st 2022.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ14 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
Sort by:
"Surely not N+1 years!"
Which admittedly is not a heuristic which has served me well in the past.
Also, arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-the-winds-of-winter-book-six-o
https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/
new blog post. GRRM mentions that he "made a lot of progress on WINDS in 2020, and less in 2021"
More related questions
Related questions
Will sci-fi author Neal Stephenson publish a novel (book) in 2024?
97% chance
Will George R.R. Martin finish Winds of Winter by the end of 2024?
32% chance
What year will the next book in the Game of Thrones (ASOIAF) book series be released?
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
63% chance
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
55% chance
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire be released by 2025?
22% chance
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
54% chance
Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive
56% chance
Will The Winds of Winter be released by 2025?
20% chance
Will George Santos publish a book in 2024?
49% chance