Will George R.R. Martin publish an ASOIAF book in 2022?
Resolves to YES if "The Winds of Winter" or "A Dream of Spring" are released before December 31st 2022.
"Surely not N+1 years!" Which admittedly is not a heuristic which has served me well in the past. Also, arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-the-winds-of-winter-book-six-o