Congratulations @a_l_e_x for having better resolution criteria than Polymarket and Kalshi :)

@bens just had a look. Good grief. What happened, were their criteria not clear from the start?

@a_l_e_x no clue but ya, it was pretty ambiguous always and they elected to go for a counterintuitive clarification that instantaneously moved the odds from like 15% Maduro to 60% Maduro. Not ideal lol

@a_l_e_x how will you resolve this if the current situation holds?

@Jack1 @a_l_e_x I strongly suggest that if the current situation holds, you resolve to Delcy Rodriguez, not Nicolas Maduro.

@bens @Jack1 fwiw it looks like the creator already clarified this:

@bens @Jack1 oops wrong screenshot

@bens ok. Thanks. I see Maduro is 2nd fav on Polymarket @13%. Different criteria

@Jack1 Ben is correct 👆

Delxiaoping has the mandate of heaven. She will rule for a century.

A year is a long time and the situation is nowhere near stable in Venezuela.

Can someone explain to me (in a nonpartisan fashion preferably) why Machado isn't being put in charge? Wasn't she the legitimate winner of the election?

@Mrdudeguy she was barred from participating in the 2024 presidential election so wasn’t a winner. Edmundo Gonzalez is believed to be the true winner

@Jack1 Oh I see. But she was the one who won the novel peace prize right?

@Mrdudeguy yes

@Mrdudeguy put in charge by whom, is the question

@Mrdudeguy who is going to do that? Maduro's party is still in power; that doesn't change just because the boss got snatched. If you want a new regime you need a revolution. That's probably easier now than before, but far from automatic...

Allegations now that Diosdado may be trying to stage a coup against Delcy Rodriguez
Gunfire and various vehicles in the streets of Miraflores, in any case

@BorisBartlog I made a market about this just a moment ago!

Related markets:

Personally think Maduro bending the knee is undervalued

What if it is anarchy, with several regions run by rival presidents? Percentage?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'll try to answer all of your questions in one go...

The market resolves to whichever person is president at the close date. If there is no president or head of state whatsoever (which would presumably mean anarchy) I would have to strongly consider voiding the market, although I would like to avoid doing that if I can.

I don't believe there is anything in the resolution criteria to suggest that I should resolve to the most recent president at the close date if that person is no longer in office.

The "Other" option should be read as "any other person not listed here" rather than a catch-all for any other possible scenario. (Otherwise, it would include outcomes that are arguably orthogonal to the question.)

It's hard to say what I will do if there's some kind of civil war or fragmentation of power, because that includes a wide variety of different scenarios. If there is an ongoing conflict between government and rebel forces at the close date, and each side has its own claimed head of state, I would be inclined to resolve 100% to the one recognised by the government unless I have a good reason not to. (But see my earlier clarification about resolving to the person who is actually in power.) I would like to avoid a percentage resolution to this market, but if someone makes the case for one, I will listen

If there is no president, it is Other, right?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen sorry, it resolves to last president. I really should read the descriptions... bad me