Ben Rowswell thinks NO (based on Delcy Rodriguez remaining in power)

https://ras-nsa.ca/expert/ben-rowswell/

@Magnify do you have a link to his analysis?

@MachiNi I spoke to him and heard him speak on this at an in person event, I was invited by him personally. There may be a recording online though, this was the event

https://iid.kislenko.com/sovereignty-or-subjugation-the-stakes-of-the-venezuela-crisis/

@Magnify nice. Thanks.

Having your leadership on the verge of musical chairs or being invaded usually makes things worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/world/americas/venezuela-release-political-prisoners.html

They freed the political prisoners I think this is a good sign https://x.com/maps_black/status/2009312548953190718?s=20

@Gugra https://x.com/agusantonetti/status/2009308528784060433?s=20

These odds are nuts.
Looking to the past 50 years, a very generous prior would be ~25%

Better off (2)

• Grenada 1983 (Free elections held 1984)

• Panama 1989 (Democratic elections; widely considered successful)

Borderline (3)

• Nicaragua 1990 (war ended, but economy ruined)

• Serbia 2000 (democratic opening, sanctions lifted)

• Haiti 1994 (brief stability, then collapse)

Not better off (7)

• Argentina 1976

• Afghanistan mujahideen 1980s

• Haiti 1986

• Afghanistan 2001

• Iraq 2003

• Haiti 2004

• Libya 2011

@jgyou Most of these are not comparable at all to what’s happened so far in Venezuela…

Fair, pick your own reference class or treat this as a loose prior to update with the inside view.

The general point is that the US replacing your head of state is, historically, not a good thing.

@jgyou

Or maybe the US replaces countries which are in a bad shape in the first place.

Also Iraq is better off now than back then by every measure, be it GDP per Capita, income, life expectancy, school attendance, etc. It had dark years of chaos without Sadam, but it had dark years of quasi-genocide under sadam too. Afghanistan, then? It lived its golden years under american occupation. Unparalleled prosperity and relative peace, better than anything they ever had before, including the "golden" years of 1950 (it was a shithole poorer than americas Afghanistan). Afghanistan is proof that when the US leaves broken countries to the indigenous peoples, it gets worse.

You also forgot about other extremely sucessful cases of american intervention. Germany, Japan, Italy, South Korea, Taiwan... (Bosnia somewhat), Chile, Brazil (Brazil was mostly internal, just american support in case of civil war).

So yeah, your prior comes from a biased selection of episodes and biased interpretation of its outcomes.

(via Hanania)

@noaht2 this cannot be for real, is he planning to take everyone hostage or what?

bastards already got a new wave of repression going on + if the US does try to take over the country they'll decimate it & fail to rebuild it

@GastropodGaming it’s too early to tell but the early signs aren’t looking too good

Four days after President Trump said the United States would “run” Venezuela, the sprawling political, security and intelligence apparatus that propped up Mr. Maduro’s strongman rule is in still place, and day-to-day life for many Venezuelans has worsened.

…

So far, it appears that Mr. Trump’s demands for the Venezuelan government, which he and other American presidents have denounced for its repression, have been relatively narrow.

In their public comments since Mr. Maduro’s capture, U.S. officials have focused largely on Venezuela’s oil and its connections to drug trafficking. Privately, they have also pressured Ms. Rodríguez’s government to expel spies and military personnel from China, Russia, Iran and Cuba.

Whether, or how, the Trump administration is prioritizing democracy and human rights in its talks with Venezuela is less clear.

Mr. Trump was asked by reporters on Sunday whether the two sides had discussed the release of political prisoners or the return of opposition politicians from exile. “We haven’t gotten to that yet,” he responded. “What we want to do now is fix up the oil.”

…

Ms. Rodríguez appears to have declared a 90-day state of emergency that gives the security forces broad power to “immediately search and capture” anyone who supports “the armed attack by the United States,” along with other measures that would further erode civil liberties in a nation long under authoritarian rule.

Since that decree, Venezuelans have reported an increase in the number of police and security forces on the streets, especially the so-called colectivos, militias of masked men carrying rifles.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/world/americas/venezuela-repression.html

Do you mean better off economically?

@ChrisMillsc5f7 the description says better off "as a whole"

also was very hopeful a first but each day they let the vice president of Maduro in power the worse things get I am thinking probably much wont change

I think a very good indicator on improving conditions would be how many people go back to Venezuela or even if the amount fleeing is smaller

Will you commit to not resolving this by manifold poll?

Lots of good reflections here:

https://open.substack.com/pub/flyovertakes/p/25-thoughts-on-venezuelan-regime?utm_source=direct&r=di5yu&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

The only way Venezuela can go south if the country descends into civil war, but I'm betting against that. In every other scenario, even in the most pessimistic one, the better relationship with the US is going to make things better, even if the US takes all the oil.

@PaulManuel I can imagine scenarios where Venezuelan quality of life goes down in the short term

@PaulManuel have you ever heard of iraq