Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2026?
57
2kṀ4260
2027
25%
chance
4

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Venezuela's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report (which has yet to be published, but should come out in early 2026).


If Venezuela's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Nah, it's unlikely Delcy will be worse than Maduro

bought Ṁ50 YES

I hope to lose this bet.

But at the moment the Maduro followers seem to keep power and they repress the people and the press.

From the sources I've seen, regime change leads to minor improvements in these types of indexes. Libya improved from 1.94 to 3.55 to 5.15 from 2010 to 2012 and Iraq's civil liberty score improved under Freedom House after 2003, though the Economist's Democracy Index was not yet created for reference here.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Very interested to see what people think of this now, and how it changes over the year. Boosted!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy