Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the United States at the end of 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

An option in this market will resolve YES if the named country is designated as a state sponsor of terrorism by the US Department of State at the close date.

An option in this market will resolve NO if the named country is not designated as a state sponsor of terrorism by the US Department of State at the close date.

Close date

This market will close at 05:00:00 UTC on 1 January 2027 and resolve afterwards.

Resolution principles

It will be presumed that an established state of affairs has not changed until it is proven to have changed.

In the event that the resolution of the market is subjective or contentious, traders will be properly consulted.

Interpretation principles

The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.

No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.

Further information and clarifications

As the resolution of this market is unlikely to be subjective, I may trade in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Cuba, followed by North Korea and Iran are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of May 18, 2026).