Will Venezuela have a higher incarceration rate in 2028 than it did in 2022?

Question

Background

In 2022, Venezuela had 199 prisoners per 100,000 residents, according to the World Prison Brief.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, according to World Prison Brief data published in 2029 or later, Venezuela had more than 199 prisoners per 100,000 residents in 2028.

This market will resolve NO if, according to World Prison Brief data published in 2029 or later, Venezuela had no more than 199 prisoners per 100,000 residents in 2028.

Clarifications

The close date is subject to change.

I will not trade in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 30% chance (10 traders, as of May 24, 2026).