Will the US seize the Punta Cardón oil refinery in 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, the United States of America militarily seizes the Cardón Refinery in Punta Cardón, Venezuela.

This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.

Close date

This market is set to close at 04:00:00 UTC on 1 January 2027.

Clarifications

I will not trade in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (6 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).