In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

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2028

36%

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EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/coke-new-ai-holiday-ad-video-1236416491/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yy6fByUmPuE

@Dulaman ah, the classic "22 wheeler" truck and trailer 🤣

@Dulaman surely they're not serious, this is literally a New Coke type stunt

@robm so many things hurt my brain in this video

New big-budget studio film

https://gizmodo.com/the-mummy-new-sequel-brendan-fraser-and-rachel-weisz-2000681497

@robm Is this link related to this market in some way? I didn’t see the connection

bought Ṁ100 NO

@JimHays I think the idea is that movies are so dumb that AI should be able to do it easily.

@DavidBolin pretty much this.

When I think of big-budget studio films, I tend to imagine either my favorites, or academy award nominees.

I've mentioned The Mummy Returns in previous comments, for whatever reason it's the one that comes to mind when I think about all the other movies that are big-budget studio films. The bar for this market is high, but I don't think it needs to be higher than the next Mummy sequel.

damn

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mummy_(1999_film)

I highly suspect that with correct composition of agents (and lots of compute) it can be done even now.

bought Ṁ100 NO

State of the art

@TiredCliche confirmed comparable with a big budget studio film

List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia

Why would his predictions about AI movies be any more accurate? The correlation with inaccuracy is obviously not chance.

@DavidBolin is Elon Musk more inaccurate than chance? how much predictions did he get right? that list you linked is not an unbiased selection. also btw this is giving me inverse Cramer vibes.

@calour Of course he is more inaccurate than chance, because he is motivated to say that things will be soon.

So if there were going to be AI movies in 2027, he would be very likely to say there would be AI movies in 2026. The fact that he did not say that is evidence there will not be AI movies in 2027 (so not at the beginning of 2028.)

@calour yeah

List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia

People voting no, what brand of shoe do you plan to eat in 2028?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Dulaman AI timelines are looking less likely to be that rapid recently.

@DavidHiggs So is that Nike or Adidas?

@DavidHiggs maybe a feature length period drama about a man going through all the stages of grief until he finally accepts that he has to eat a shoe

It's either that or Ms Frizzle gone wild

@ScottAlexander maybe someone has asked this already, but the prompt can be as long as wanted? Like a "Make me movie that follows this script: [whole script here]" for example. Or is the question also about a generating a sensible script?