📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?
1k
2035
78%
chance

Resolves YES if a post made by @ScottAlexander (e.g. on Astral Codex Ten) between 2023-09-11 and 2034-12-31 (inclusive) is an "all-time" post in my judgement by the end of 2034. UTC times will be used. Only posts by Scott count. For example, the book review contest submissions do not count (unless one of them is later revealed to have been written by Scott).

Motivation: Meditations on Moloch was written about ten years ago. It is widely acknowledged as a seminal post both on Slate Star Codex, as well as in the rationalist discourse. To this day, "Moloch" remains a central concept in discussions of coordination problems. Will there be a post with similar importance in the next ten years?

Resolution of this post will be judged by me. I will resolve YES once I have 90% or greater credence that the post is "all-time". The kinds of things that I expect I will find to be convincing evidence include:

  • A number of likes on the post far outside the usual distribution

  • Penetration of the concepts in the post to wider circles

  • Persistence of references to the post for years

  • Inclusion of the post on retrospective "best of" lists years later

Some posts I judge to be all-time:

  • Meditations on Moloch

  • Unsong

  • I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup

  • Conflict vs Mistake

Some posts I don't judge to be all-time:

  • Book Review: Zero to One

  • Ars Longa, Vita Brevis

See also:

/Tossup/will-scottalexander-write-another-b-8293250ed56d
/Tossup/will-scottalexander-write-a-classic

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I think you should provide the exact set of extant posts you consider to be "all-time".

@Kurgan Good idea. I will need some time to review…

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