In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
86
265
1.6k
2031
47%
chance

See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction). Resolution criteria from the post:
"The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books. It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references. It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".


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Scott Alexander was the original ChatGPT

Based on all the questions that matter but pretends he isn’t (many masks on)

I feel as though the quality of Scots writing has been declining over time

Will this market result based on the 75 percentile of current post or 2030 psts

@MordecaiWeynberg You should ask Scott. Unless he's being blantantly dishonest or unreasonable, I'll resolve however he decides

I take it "75th percentile" has its usual meaning of the bottom 25%, not the top 25%?

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@PhilipGoetz Isn’t that not the usual meaning? I would assume top 25%. (Though I would be very surprised if an AI could do one but not the other)

Yes, you're right. I was confused because I usually deal with statements about "the top N percentile". But "the 99th percentile" means the top 1%.

@PhilipGoetz But note "the 1%" also means the top 1%.

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