IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

Politics

US Politics

Medicine 

Abortion

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🤖 AI

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

'500k':3 'context':1 'token':4 'window':2

'250k':3 'context':1 'token':4 'window':2

all (announced/confirmed) models will be launched by August 24

'24':9 'announced/confirmed':2 'august':8 'launch':6 'model':3

We will use the rank determined by ChatBot Arena, which means that two companies can tie rank #1

It suffices if any of the announced models fulfill this criterion

: A launch is considered complete if the model makes its way to the internet and anyone with sufficient effort can get their hands on it. 

LLMs

This will be based on whatever Meta calls Llama-3, whether or not it deserves that name, or if it renames its next larger LLM to not include 'llama' I will use best judgment on whether it counts. If Meta does not release a relevant model by EOY 2024 this resolves to NO. If the model is not open sourced it does not count.

[EDIT: I failed to think about or specify properly what 'GPT-4' meant when I created this market, not considering that GPT-4 might improve a lot under that name. There is currently a poll on what is the correct way to handle this: Should we use GPT-4-Turbo's current version as the baseline, or GPT-4-314 from when the question was created? And this is a BIG difference in expected probability of this resolving YES, sub-50% versus 90%+. Like the comments to vote and I will respect the result unless it seems manipulated (in which case I would find another way to decide)].

By default will judge based on the leaderboard here: 

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

Discover amazing ML apps made by the community

Chatbot Arena Leaderboard - a Hugging Face Space by lmsys

Once it has been on the leaderboard for 7 days if it is close to allow ratings to settle, or if the resolution is obvious in either direction for any reason, I will resolve. If I feel the leaderboard is clearly wrong or it is not available at the time and the answer is non-obvious, I will consult experts and/or use a Twitter poll.


🦾 Technical AI Timelines

GPT-4 speculation

OpenAI

This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

🗳️ Politics

presidential debate

Meta's latest text-to-image model supports real-time image generation while writing the prompt. Will OpenAI support this feature in 2024?

Boston Red Sox beat Atlanta Braves - 12pm

'12pm':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'boston':1 'brave':6 'red':2 'sox':3

St. Louis Cardinals beat Houston Astros - 12pm

'12pm':7 'astro':6 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'houston':5 'loui':2 'st':1

Tampa Bay Rays beat Philadelphia Phillies - 12pm

'12pm':7 'bay':2 'beat':4 'philadelphia':5 'philli':6 'ray':3 'tampa':1

Chicago White Sox beat Milwaukee Brewers - 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'chicago':1 'milwauke':5 'sox':3 'white':2

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - 2pm

'2pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'oakland':1

Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamondbacks 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':4 'beat':3 'diamondback':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Kansas City Royals 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'colorado':1 'kansa':4 'rocki':2 'royal':6

Seattle Mariners beat Los Angeles Angels 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':5,6 'beat':3 'los':4 'marin':2 'seattl':1

Detroit Tigers beat Toronto Blue Jays 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'blue':5 'detroit':1 'jay':6 'tiger':2 'toronto':4

New York Mets beat Washington Nationals 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':4 'met':3 'nation':6 'new':1 'washington':5 'york':2

New York Yankees beat Detroit Tigers - 5:30pm

'30pm':8 '5':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'new':1 'tiger':6 'yanke':3 'york':2

'7pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cincinnati':1 'cub':5 'red':2

San Francisco Giants beat Los Angeles Dodgers 8pm

'8pm':8 'angel':6 'beat':4 'dodger':7 'francisco':2 'giant':3 'los':5 'san':1

Atlanta Braves beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'beat':3 'brave':2 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

Philadelphia Phillies beat Houston Astros - 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':5 'beat':3 'houston':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Minnesota Twins - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'minnesota':4 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1 'twin':5

Toronto Blue Jays beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'blue':2 'jay':3 'new':5 'toronto':1 'yanke':7 'york':6

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'cub':2 'marin':5 'seattl':4

Cleveland Guardians beat Chicago White Sox - 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cleveland':1 'guardian':2 'sox':6 'white':5

Texas Rangers beat Kansas City Royals 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'ranger':2 'royal':6 'texa':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Chicago Cubs - 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'diamondback':2

Los Angeles Angels beat Colorado Rockies - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'colorado':5 'los':1 'rocki':6

Milwaukee Brewers beat Oakland Athletics - 2pm

'2pm':6 'athlet':5 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'milwauke':1 'oakland':4

Baltimore Orioles beat Detroit Tigers - 5pm

'5pm':6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'detroit':4 'oriol':2 'tiger':5

Washington Nationals beat St. Louis Cardinals - 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'cardin':6 'loui':5 'nation':2 'st':4 'washington':1

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'marlin':2 'met':6 'miami':1 'new':4 'york':5

Los Angeles Dodgers beat Cincinnati Reds - 7pm

'7pm':7 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cincinnati':5 'dodger':3 'los':1 'red':6

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - 7pm

'7pm':8 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Oakland Athletics beat Milwaukee Brewers - 8pm

'8pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'milwauke':4 'oakland':1

Houston Astros beat Washington Nationals - 11am

'11am':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'nation':5 'washington':4

Atlanta Braves beat Baltimore Orioles - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'baltimor':4 'beat':3 'brave':2 'oriol':5

Detroit Tigers beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'detroit':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4 'tiger':2

Minnesota Twins beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'minnesota':1 'new':4 'twin':2 'yanke':6 'york':5

Philadelphia Phillies beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'blue':5 'jay':6 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'toronto':4

St. Louis Cardinals beat New York Mets - 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'loui':2 'met':7 'new':5 'st':1 'york':6

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'colorado':4 'cub':2 'rocki':5

Cleveland Guardians beat Los Angeles Angels - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':5,6 'beat':3 'cleveland':1 'guardian':2 'los':4

Kansas City Royals beat Arizona Diamondbacks - 2pm

'2pm':7 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'citi':2 'diamondback':6 'kansa':1 'royal':3

Los Angeles beat Dodgers Texas Rangers - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':2 'beat':3 'dodger':4 'los':1 'ranger':6 'texa':5

San Francisco beat Giants Oakland Athletics - 2pm

'2pm':7 'athlet':6 'beat':3 'francisco':2 'giant':4 'oakland':5 'san':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Cincinnati Reds - 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'cincinnati':4 'diamondback':2 'red':5

Milwaukee Brewers beat Seattle Mariners - 2pm

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'marin':5 'milwauke':1 'seattl':4

San Diego Padres beat Chicago White Sox - 2pm

'2pm':8 'beat':4 'chicago':5 'diego':2 'padr':3 'san':1 'sox':7 'white':6

Oakland Athletics beat Milwaukee Brewers - 3pm

'3pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'milwauke':4 'oakland':1

'4pm':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'boston':5 'ray':3 'red':6 'sox':7 'tampa':1

Washington Nationals beat Miami Marlins - 5pm

'5pm':6 'beat':3 'marlin':5 'miami':4 'nation':2 'washington':1

Baltimore Orioles beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'blue':5 'jay':6 'oriol':2 'toronto':4

Boston Red Sox beat  Tampa Bay Rays - 12pm

'12pm':8 'bay':6 'beat':4 'boston':1 'ray':7 'red':2 'sox':3 'tampa':5

'12pm':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'marlin':5 'miami':4

Minnesota Twins beat Washington Nationals - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'minnesota':1 'nation':5 'twin':2 'washington':4

New York Yankees beat Atlanta Braves - 12pm

'12pm':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'brave':6 'new':1 'yanke':3 'york':2

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Philadelphia Phillies - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'philadelphia':4 'philli':5 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1

Toronto Blue Jays beat Baltimore Orioles (different game) - 12:07pm

'07pm':10 '12':9 'baltimor':5 'beat':4 'blue':2 'differ':7 'game':8 'jay':3 'oriol':6 'toronto':1

Miami Marlins beat St. Louis Cardinals - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'cardin':6 'loui':5 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'st':4

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'met':3 'new':1 'tiger':6 'york':2

Cincinnati Reds beat Cleveland Guardians - 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'cincinnati':1 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'red':2

Los Angeles Dodgers beat Arizona Diamondbacks - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':2 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'diamondback':6 'dodger':3 'los':1

Oakland Athletics beat Kansas City Royals - 3pm

'3pm':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'oakland':1 'royal':6

San Francisco Giants beat Chicago White Sox - 3pm

'3pm':8 'beat':4 'chicago':5 'francisco':2 'giant':3 'san':1 'sox':7 'white':6

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Milwaukee Brewers - 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'colorado':1 'milwauke':4 'rocki':2

Los Angeles Angels beat San Diego Padres - 3pm

'3pm':8 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'diego':6 'los':1 'padr':7 'san':5

Atlanta Braves beat Minnesota Twins - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'beat':3 'brave':2 'minnesota':4 'twin':5

Boston Red Sox beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'boston':1 'pirat':6 'pittsburgh':5 'red':2 'sox':3

Houston Astros beat Detroit Tigers - 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'detroit':4 'houston':1 'tiger':5

New York Yankees beat Baltimore Orioles - 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':5 'beat':4 'new':1 'oriol':6 'yanke':3 'york':2

Philadelphia Phillies beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'new':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'yanke':6 'york':5

St. Louis Cardinals beat Washington Nationals - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'loui':2 'nation':6 'st':1 'washington':5

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

Chicago White Sox beat Colorado Rockies - 3pm

'3pm':7 'beat':4 'chicago':1 'colorado':5 'rocki':6 'sox':3 'white':2

Cleveland Guardians beat Los Angeles Dodgers - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':5 'beat':3 'cleveland':1 'dodger':6 'guardian':2 'los':4

Kansas City Royals beat San Francisco Giants - 3pm

'3pm':8 'beat':4 'citi':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'kansa':1 'royal':3 'san':5

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Oakland Athletics - 3pm

'3pm':6 'arizona':1 'athlet':5 'beat':3 'diamondback':2 'oakland':4

Los Angeles Angels beat Texas Rangers - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'los':1 'ranger':6 'texa':5

Seattle Mariners beat San Diego Padres - 3pm

'3pm':7 'beat':3 'diego':5 'marin':2 'padr':6 'san':4 'seattl':1

'5pm':7 'beat':4 'marlin':6 'met':3 'miami':5 'new':1 'york':2

Baltimore Orioles beat Tampa Bay Rays 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':1 'bay':5 'beat':3 'oriol':2 'ray':6 'tampa':4

Boston Red Sox beat St. Louis Cardinals 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'boston':1 'cardin':7 'loui':6 'red':2 'sox':3 'st':5

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'detroit':1 'minnesota':4 'tiger':2 'twin':5

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Atlanta Braves 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':4 'beat':3 'brave':5 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1

Toronto Blue Jays beat New York Yankees 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':5 'beat':3 'houston':4 'marlin':2 'miami':1

Los Angeles Dodgers beat San Francisco Giants 3pm

'3pm':8 'angel':2 'beat':4 'dodger':3 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'los':1 'san':5

Oakland Athletics beat Seattle Mariners 3pm

'3pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'marin':5 'oakland':1 'seattl':4