Resolves YES if Joe Biden wins the 2024 election. Resolves NO if he loses the democratic primary or the presidential election.
Resolves N/A if this market is unsubsidized or otherwise 'dealt with'.
1,000
3.00Market is an exact, or close to exact, duplicate of an existing market.
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Guidance-for-running-a-market-8cb4257ed3644ec9a1d6cc6c705f7c77
I took care of this for you - unsubsidized as per the guidelines.
@jack Not sure if you were part of the original joke or not, but this was one of a series of markets:
/Tumbles/if-manifold-doesnt-deal-with-duplic
/nikki/if-manifold-doesnt-deal-with-duplic-0ad0084a71c2
/benjaminIkuta/if-manifold-doesnt-deal-with-duplic-b5c7a55dd485
And this one....
/Tumbles/if-the-market-in-the-description-re
At the time, I decided the other two were clones of this and unsubsidized them, but it was not yet clear whether Manifold had "dealt with" duplicate markets as a whole so I left this one alone.
I think overall it has felt like duplicates are less of a problem right now than they were 2 months ago, and if I found a duplicate today I would feel fairly confident to unsubsidize it, so doing that here seems totally fine? This question adds nothing above and beyond what other markets on the same topic add......
@jack What's the difference between this market and https://manifold.markets/Orangey/will-any-of-biden-trump-or-mira-be?
What defines "close"?
@nikki I think it would be hard to justify unsubsidizing Orangey's market unless you at least have a independent market showing Mira's chances of winning are negligible. So far Orangey's market has been conistently higher than the one with only Biden/Trump by a few percent! I think Mira has a shot here!
@nikki A lot of those are ultimately going to be judgement calls.
I am comfortable unsubbing that one too. I wouldn't necessarily object if someone else decided it should be subbed though. It also depends on whether the author made it with the intent to skirt the guidelines, and whether people find value in it
@nikki The vibe I get from Manifold's founders and staff has almost always leaned more toward "subsidize almost everything" than "let's close the fire hose down a little bit"
Cool market, I've never seen this one before.
Speaking of which, random thing, I was talking to Evan about how Manifold should not pay to subsidize exact clones of existing markets \*unless they bring something new to the table\*.....something that could be a judgement in the eyes of an individual moderator......
Anyway, I think he's about 50% likely to win.