If Trump is elected president, will Manifold think he made a serious attempt to remain in charge after 4 years are up?
Plus
18
Ṁ14272029
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there. The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community. Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote. Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
If Trump becomes the next US president, will he make a serious attempt to remain in charge after 4 years are up?
34% chance
If Trump is elected, will he attempt to pardon himself?
70% chance
Will Manifold think Trump's threat to democracy was overblown at the end of 2025?
38% chance
Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
16% chance
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Donald Trump before the end of 2024?
42% chance
If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
38% chance
If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?
25% chance
Will Trump describe himself as a "changed man" by the end of 2024?
13% chance
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
17% chance