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MANIFOLD
How will a plurality of Manifold vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
20
Ṁ1kṀ1.5k
resolved Dec 30
100%98%
Democrat
2.0%
Republican
0.0%
Alliance
0.0%
Constitution
0.0%
Green
0.3%
Libertarian
0.0%
An independent candidate

After the election, I will poll Manifold users to ask how they voted, and resolve this market to whichever party got the most votes in that poll.

The poll will not be anonymous, and if I find out that anyone answered the poll differently from how they actually voted, I will consider that dishonorable. Realistically though, I have no way to enforce accurate voting.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Manifold
2024 US Presidential Election
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Poll is up:

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/how-did-you-vote-in-the-2024-us-pre

Related:

What if plurality of Manifold didn't vote? (too young, not american, etc)

@Yev They're ignored.

I don't know much about Destiny; how is that crowd likely to vote?

(Never mind whether their poll answers can be trusted to accurately reflect their votes, I think I can guess the answer to that.)

@IsaacKing this market seems to imply that at least some serious fraction of Destiny's supporters like Democrat Raphael Warnock

How will Manifold vote in the 2024 presidential election?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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