Will Poland invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty?
26
12
580
resolved Nov 15
Resolved
YES

Two Russian missiles have crossed in Poland (NATO territory) and murdered two Polish people – https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52

As a result, the Polish PM have called an emergency meeting of the nation's national defense committee – https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-premier-calls-urgent-meeting-national-security-committee-2022-11-15/

Article 4 of the NATO Treaty – https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_4

*UPDATE *

Russia denies responsibility – https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1592607433025007617

*UPDATE 2*

Polish government sources tell Onet that two Russian missiles reached Poland, killing two people – https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/nieoficjalnie-rosyjskie-rakiety-spadly-na-polske-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/v4g9knm,79cfc278

*UPDATE 3*

Latvian officials: NATO Article 5 will most likely not be triggered due to the Russian missiles that fell on the territory of Poland – https://www.diena.lv/raksts/viedokli/latvija/latvijas-amatpersonas-polijas-teritorija-nokrituso-krievu-rakesu-del-nato-5.pantu-visticamak-neiedarbinas-14289713

*UPDATE 4*

Poland is considering whether to call for NATO talks under Article Four (still to decide on it, whether to do it or not) – https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1592627135885152256
https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1592627810811940864

*UPDATE 5*

Poland's president has decided to convene the National Security Council tomorrow (November 16th) at 12:00PM Warsaw time.

*UPDATE 6*

President of Poland says no definite evidence of who fired the missiles – https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1592664676818616320

*UPDATE 7*

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-considering-nato-article-4-activation-says-spokesman-2022-11-15
https://twitter.com/faststocknewss/status/1592665293880709121

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predicted NO

This was resolved incorrectly, Poland did not invoke article 4. The rocket was likely part of UA defence system.

@FranekZak I believe it was resolved on the basis of the previous link, which makes it sound like it was invoked. However, many articles even timestamped later than that say poland was contemplating invoking article 4. Seems unclear to me.

The US says it was Ukraine missile defense, however that doesn't mean poland didn't invoke article 4

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-november-warsaw-has-withdrawn-its-request-for-a-nato-article "Warsaw has withdrawn its request for a NATO Article 4 meeting over the explosions that killed two people last night, per officials. NATO ambassadors will discuss the situation at their (already-scheduled) 10 am meeting; Sec Gen Stoltenberg will brief around 12:30"

If this is accurate (I couldn't verify), sounds to me that Poland did make an Article 4 request, and then withdrew it. In which case YES resolution seems correct.

predicted NO

@jack Yes, seems I might have been wrong, sorry.

predicted NO

@jack I'm not sure if Poland every invoked Article 4. This source that you linked only goes to a tweet. This article only suggested that they reserved the right: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/world/europe/nato-article-4-poland-ukraine.html

@JeffHsu Yeah, it looks like it wasn't formally invoked so far. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_4 says it can be formally invoked and that "Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven  times." and Feb 2022 was the most recent listed.

However, there was reporting beyond just a tweet, there's also the Reuters link below which certainly made it sound like article 4 was being invoked - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-meet-wednesday-request-poland-consultations-diplomats-2022-11-15/ "NATO ambassadors will meet on Wednesday at the request of Poland on basis of the alliance's Article 4". (This is why we need the ability to change resolutions.)

bought Ṁ5 of YES

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-meet-wednesday-request-poland-consultations-diplomats-2022-11-15/

"NATO ambassadors will meet on Wednesday at the request of Poland on basis of the alliance's Article 4, two European diplomats told Reuters after an explosion in Poland close to the Ukrainian border reportedly caused by a stray Russian missile."

Article 4 doesn’t need to be activated. It’s ongoing.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

@BTE this means this market should be resolved to N/A immediately?

@LeonardoKroger Have market create say they mean invoke. This semantics is such a stain for manifold. Omg, it never ends.