market for Article 4: (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-invoke-82682cdecb35)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, ---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030---, followed by United States of America and Other are most likely. See the market for live updates (35 traders, as of Mar 17, 2026).

What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?

MANIFOLD

What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?

Ṁ1.4kṀ5.1k

2029

40%

---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030---

23%

United States of America

Other

Lithuania

Poland

Estonia

Turkey

1.8%

Denmark

1.5%

Greece

1.3%

Finland

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