market for Article 4: (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-invoke-82682cdecb35)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, ---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030---, followed by United States of America and Other are most likely. See the market for live updates (36 traders, as of Apr 1, 2026).

What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?

MANIFOLD

What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?

Ṁ1.4kṀ5.2k

2029

52%

---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030---

18%

United States of America

Other

Poland

Lithuania

Estonia

Turkey

1.5%

Denmark

1.2%

Greece

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