What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 4?
What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 4?
21
1.1kṀ19092029
32%
Lithuania
20%
Estonia
17%
Poland
12%
Turkiye
9%
---no Article 4 before 2030---
3%
Finland
3%
Greece
1.8%
Ukraine
1.4%
Latvia
"Article 4 of NATO Treaty:
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."
Article 4 of the NATO treaty covers the case when a member state feels threatened by another country or a terrorist organization. The 30 member states then start formal consultations at the request of the threatened member. The talks look at whether a threat exists and how to counter it, with decisions arrived at unanimously. Article 4 does not, however, mean that there will be direct pressure to act. Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked several times.
((Market works no longer than till 2030.)
other Article 4 markets:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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