Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
20
501
2030
41%
chance

Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm

If any NATO member country invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 29, 2022, and December 31, 2030, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to "Yes".

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

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