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Will it be known at the end of 2025 that a Manhattan-like project to build AGI in the US is underway? This market will resolve to the preponderance of evidence on either side.
‘Manhattan-like’ refers to a large, not necessarily secret, attempt by the US Government to build an organization capable of pushing forward the state of the art in AI significantly. The US Government needs to retain some control over the decisions of this organization, they don't just help fund a new independent organization. Investment from the government must be significant, but if it's unknown but seems significant or like it's planned to be significant in the future that's fine.
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@MalachiteEagle But that is for infrastructure, not for "pushing forward the state of the art in AI significantly". Or am I missing something?
@Siebe A large government investment in agi would count I think? It may be impractical in our current society to effectively develop agi without leaking a bunch of bits into the environment, i think the scale and the project attempting to build state of the art systems is the main thing. lmk if you thought manhattan-like project had to be completely secret though
@Bayesian nah I didn't think it'd have to be secret. But I do wonder whether government needs to have a controlling share of ownership? And at what point is the scale significant? > $10B ?
Will a US Manhattan-like Project for AGI Be Launched In 2025?
Will it be known at the end of 2025 that a Manhattan-like project to build AGI in the US is underway?
Significant chance it will be launched but significant chance it will not be declassified within a year, the real Manhattan project was highly classified I think, so I'm assuming that would resolve no even if it becomes known at a later year?
@TheAllMemeingEye Yeah, i dont want to have to leep the msrket closed and unresolved until the nanobots consume the manifold servers