Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
16
1kṀ835
2028
5%
chance

Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models. I don't have a particular compute cap in mind, as long as the agreement looks something like "no models larger than GPT-n" where n is the largest GPT in existence by the time the pause takes effect. Not every nation needs to be involved, but at a bare minimum it must include the US, China, and the UK.

The only condition on the agreement I'll require for a YES resolution is some sort of bare minimum enforcement or inspection mechanism, so that mere pledges from nations not to train large models will not count.

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