AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2050?
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predicts NO
Back-of-the-envelope for folks:
~$2T is the market cap of the most valuable company in the world today (Apple). 27yr ago the most valuable company was worth ~$100B (General Electric). Assuming exponential growth and extrapolating forward, this implies that the most valuable company in the world in 2050 (i.e. 27yr from now) will be worth ~$40T.
So a $1T model would be ~2.5% of the total value of that company. That seems like a conceivable amount of money for them to spend training a massive model, assuming that they consider it to be business-critical.
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