Will any fusion reactor demonstrate >2:1 energy efficiency by the end of 2023?
TonyJackson avatar
Tony Jackson
32
closes Dec 31
40%
chance

Measured as the ratio of energy put into the fuel to energy released from fusion. For example, the Lawrence Livermore labs experiment released 2.5 MJ of energy from an input of 2.1 MJ, which gives an efficiency of 1.19:1.

Source:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/12/breakthrough-in-nuclear-fusion-could-mean-near-limitless-energy

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will Scientists at the NIF produce a net energy gain > 200% from a fusion reaction in 2023?
JamesBills avatarJames Bills
54% chance
Will anyone deliver 1MW of fusion-generated net electricity to anyone before 3000?
JonathanRay avatarJonathan Ray
70% chance
Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?
SanghyeonSeo avatarSeo Sanghyeon
36% chance
Will wind power generate 50% or more of the UK's electricity for a day or more in September 2023
nicwest06d6 avatarnic west
79% chance
What will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?
JonathanRay avatarJonathan Ray
Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?
BoltonBailey avatarBolton Bailey
69% chance
Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?
CharlesCarriere avatarCharles Carriere
52% chance
Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-helium-3 fusion before 2026?
NcyRocks avatarN.C. Young
17% chance
Will the first commercial fusion reactor be D-T?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
45% chance
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
JamesBills avatarJames Bills
35% chance
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?
MatthewBarnett avatarMatthew Barnett
14% chance
When will fusion power become viable?
LarsDoucet avatarLars Doucet
2042
When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
Meta_C avatarMeta C
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
LeoGao avatarLeo Gao
55% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?
mistersplice avatarmistersplice
32% chance
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
JonathanRay avatarJonathan Ray
23% chance
Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?
dreev avatarDaniel Reeves
65% chance
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2099?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
35% chance
Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion before 2024?
NcyRocks avatarN.C. Young
9% chance
Will the first commercial fusion reactor be a tokamak?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
60% chance
4 Comments
31 Positions
146 Trades
Sort by:
AntonSpiridonov avatar
Anton Spiridonovbought Ṁ6 of YES

Take into account arbitraging to https://manifold.markets/JamesBills/will-scientists-at-the-nif-produce which is 52%...

Will Scientists at the NIF produce a net energy gain > 200% from a fusion reaction in 2023?
54% chance. They just produced more than 150% last December and recently produced ~190%: https://www.ft.com/content/a9815bca-1b9d-4ba0-8d01-96ede77ba06a
AntonSpiridonov avatar
Anton Spiridonovbought Ṁ10 of YES

Significant part:

  • NIF is currently upgrading its lasers to 2.2 megajoules

  • Computer simulations suggest that the output energy could potentially range to as high as seven megajoules.

https://zbr.com.mx/sin-categoria-es/new-advances-in-laser-fusion-generate-more-energy/203183/

Significant Milestone Achieved in Laser Fusion: Potentially More Efficient Source of Energy
Significant Milestone Achieved in Laser Fusion: Potentially More Efficient Source of Energy - Zelosos por Buenas Renovables
RustyShackleford avatar
Rusty Shackleford

Lots of overlap with this question: https://manifold.markets/JamesBills/will-scientists-at-the-nif-produce?r=SmFtZXNCdWNoYW5hbg

Will Scientists at the NIF produce a net energy gain > 200% from a fusion reaction in 2023?
36% chance. They just produced more than 150% last December and recently produced ~190%: https://www.ft.com/content/a9815bca-1b9d-4ba0-8d01-96ede77ba06a
RustyShackleford avatar
Rusty Shackleford

The numbers in that Guardian article are out of date. The actual yield from the December shot was over 1.53:1. https://www.ft.com/content/4ff76541-ebdc-43ed-bf4e-4faa75fcf2f9

How US scientists moved one step closer to dream of fusion power
Energy gain breakthrough raises hopes of eventual abundant zero-carbon source of fuel