Will any fusion reactor demonstrate >2:1 energy efficiency by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Measured as the ratio of energy put into the fuel to energy released from fusion. For example, the Lawrence Livermore labs experiment released 2.5 MJ of energy from an input of 2.1 MJ, which gives an efficiency of 1.19:1.



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Looks like LLNL did another test on July 30th but haven't yet finished the analysis, so resolving to "No".


sold Ṁ21 of YES

Except for LLNL, nobody said working on scientific doubling.

It takes 8 days for LLNL to share breakthrough, 17 days to report something publishable. Therefore guess November 19 experiment were not successful. December 19 experiment is unlikely to publish during holidays.

Only reasonably pending 2023 experiment was done on December 4, it's chances for report will fade over next week.

bought Ṁ25 of YES


8 months from the first time to the next. 2 months. 1 month. I strongly expect to see another shot before the end of the year.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@EvanDaniel NIF supposedly had two more shots: one nov 19, and different approach shot (maglin) on nov 21. John Karry promised some fusion related announcement on Dec 5.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 33% to 34%
predicted YES

There’s a significant change a shot will be performed in 2023 which is only announced in 2024. What happens then?

@DanielWatsonb6c9 I'll say that the analysis and proving out of the result is part of demonstrating the result, so the result needs to be announced in 2023

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Summary as related to this question:

  • The actual first shot at the new 2.2 MJ level should be in November, 2023.

  • There will be several shots at the 2.2 MJ level from 2023-2025. These tests could achieve 2.6- to 6 X gain.

Need to wait till November.


I don't understand what are you actually counting.
The article doesn't seem to evaluate anything meaningful:

the positive energy gain reported ignores the 500MJ of energy that was put into the lasers themselves.

predicted YES

@a2bb yes, energy put into the fuel (as in the question) different from energy put in the lasers.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Significant part:

  • NIF is currently upgrading its lasers to 2.2 megajoules

  • Computer simulations suggest that the output energy could potentially range to as high as seven megajoules.