Will we have a functioning, energy-producing, nuclear fusion reactor by 2033? | Manifold

Will we have a functioning, energy-producing, nuclear fusion reactor by 2033?

Technology•Science•Energy•Nuclear•Fusion Energy•Popular Science

55

252

Ṁ4.9K

Ṁ995

2034

34%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?

Sort by:

Could you specify some more specific resolution criteria? E.g., would a functioning ITER count, or do you want commercial viability?

@rotatingpaguro That’s a good question, I’m thinking about actual commercial viability.

predicts NO

@DanielMoulthrop I'm interpreting this to mean commercial breakeven, as opposed to engineering or scientific breakeven. Is this a fair characterization?

@JamesJimboMedvedik Yes. Commercial break even.

Related in Technology

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?

+7% 1d78% chance

See more Technology questions

Related in Science

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will the name of a hurricane be included in any question asked during any 2024 Presidential debate?

-13% 1d37% chance

See more Science questions

Related in Energy

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Will renewable energy sources pass coal power plants as world's largest electricity source in 2024?

See more Energy questions

Related in Nuclear

Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025?

What will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?

See more Nuclear questions

Related in Fusion Energy

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

A nuclear fusion reactor consistently achieves break-even energy output (Q = 1) over a 30-day period by...?

See more Fusion Energy questions

More related questions

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?

Technology questions

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?

Science questions

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will the name of a hurricane be included in any question asked during any 2024 Presidential debate?

Energy questions

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Will renewable energy sources pass coal power plants as world's largest electricity source in 2024?

Nuclear questions

Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025?

What will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?

Fusion Energy questions

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

A nuclear fusion reactor consistently achieves break-even energy output (Q = 1) over a 30-day period by...?

Related questions

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?

Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?