
This question aims to predict the progress in nuclear fusion research and development by the end of the year 2030. It focuses on whether a significant scientific or technological breakthrough in nuclear fusion will be achieved by 2030 December 31. The following criteria define a "significant breakthrough" in this context:
Demonstration of Net Energy Gain(✔Experimantaly achieved!): Achieving a sustained nuclear fusion reaction where the energy output exceeds the energy input, marking a critical milestone towards practical fusion power.
Advancement in Containment and Stability: Substantial progress in solving the challenges of plasma containment and stability, which are key hurdles in making fusion energy feasible.
Scalability and Reproducibility: Developments indicate that fusion technology is moving towards scalability and reproducibility, which are essential for future commercialization.
Increased Global Investment and Collaboration: A notable increase in funding, international collaboration, or public-private partnerships dedicated to accelerating nuclear fusion research.
Criteria for Resolution:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if, by the end of 2030 December 31, there is credible and widely acknowledged evidence that all the above criteria for a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology have been met. This evidence might include peer-reviewed scientific publications, announcements from leading research institutions, or coverage by major science news outlets.
The market will resolve as "No" if such a breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology has not been achieved or publicly recognized by the specified date.
Updates on the significant breakthrough:
2023.Dec.21
Demonstration of Net Energy Gain(✔Experimantaly achieved!):https://www.llnl.gov/article/49301/shot-ages-fusion-ignition-breakthrough-hailed-one-most-impressive-scientific-feats-21st
Advancement in Containment and Stability
Scalability and Reproducibility
Increased Global Investment and Collaboration