Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?
22
1kṀ734
2030
73%
chance

This question aims to predict the progress in nuclear fusion research and development by the end of the year 2030. It focuses on whether a significant scientific or technological breakthrough in nuclear fusion will be achieved by 2030 December 31. The following criteria define a "significant breakthrough" in this context:

  • Demonstration of Net Energy Gain(✔Experimantaly achieved!): Achieving a sustained nuclear fusion reaction where the energy output exceeds the energy input, marking a critical milestone towards practical fusion power.

  • Advancement in Containment and Stability: Substantial progress in solving the challenges of plasma containment and stability, which are key hurdles in making fusion energy feasible.

  • Scalability and Reproducibility: Developments indicate that fusion technology is moving towards scalability and reproducibility, which are essential for future commercialization.

  • Increased Global Investment and Collaboration: A notable increase in funding, international collaboration, or public-private partnerships dedicated to accelerating nuclear fusion research.

Criteria for Resolution:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if, by the end of 2030 December 31, there is credible and widely acknowledged evidence that all the above criteria for a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology have been met. This evidence might include peer-reviewed scientific publications, announcements from leading research institutions, or coverage by major science news outlets.

The market will resolve as "No" if such a breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology has not been achieved or publicly recognized by the specified date.

Updates on the significant breakthrough:
2023.Dec.21

  • Advancement in Containment and Stability

  • Scalability and Reproducibility

  • Increased Global Investment and Collaboration

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy