Choices with dates before the next OFT 3 for next launch attempt will resolve to NO, and only the accurate time period of the launch will resolve to YES. Rest will resolve to NO.
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@TimDuffy they cannot, it's not that kind of market unfortunately. That's only possible for unlinked multiple choice.
This fact makes me think it's much better to use a format like @jack did in the comment below for when something will happen
@TimDuffy Yes, there are many benefits to that format, including that you can add more fine-grained dates as is becomes clearer when the event is going to take place, without messing things up. It worked well with my IFT-2 market:
/chrisjbillington/by-which-dates-in-2023-will-the-sec
And now that we can sort alphabetically and have the creator set a default sort order, it's even better (no longer need the emphasis on sort order that I had to include in the title and description).
The platform doesn't enforce that the cumulative distribution is monotonically increasing, so that could be somewhat improved still.
There have been on and off discussions about explicit support "by when will X happen", markets, and I imagine they'll end up looking something like this.
@chrisjbillington Great point about making it easier to add more options! There's a market I created where I wanted to add options but wasn't sure how to do it without messing up sorting, if I change the options from MMMDDYYYY to YYYYMMDD I can sort alphabetically and they'll still be ordered right.
@TimDuffy yes, that'd work. And if you can't change the labels (are they editable indefinitely?), you can at least set the sort order to low % or high %, then it will sort sensibly assuming traders haven't messed up the monotonicity.
@chrisjbillington I was pretty new to manifold when i made this market. i will keep it in mind for future ones.
@notarealuser No problem at all. The cumulative format is a pretty recent innovation and a bit experimental, certainly not cemented as the only way to do things. But I think there's a lot to like about it given how things work at the moment!
@MayMeta Ah my bad, I will change tge resolution riteria since people have already placed some. bets