By when will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight
Standard
15
Ṁ11522026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
23%
2025/01/01
31%
2025/04/01
39%
2025/07/01
52%
2025/10/01
61%
2026/01/01
71%
2026/04/01
79%
2026/07/01
Each date resolves YES if a Super Heavy booster is used in a launch intended to send Starship to space, returns to Earth in one piece, and then and then launches on another mission intended to deliver a starship to space, before that date, using local time at the launch site.
Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-super-heavy-boo
Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting
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