By when will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight
31
1.5kṀ8331
2026
1%
2025/04/24
12%
2025/05/01
65%
2025/05/16
87%
2025/06/01
92%
2025/07/01
94%
2025/10/01
97%
2026/01/01
98%
2026/04/01
98.5%
2026/07/01
Resolved
NO
2025/01/01
Resolved
NO
2025/04/01
Resolved
NO
2025/04/16

Each date resolves YES if a Super Heavy booster is used in a launch intended to send Starship to space, returns to Earth in one piece, and then and then launches on another mission intended to deliver a starship to space, before that date, using local time at the launch site.

Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-super-heavy-boo

Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting

Science
SpaceX
Space
Starship Launch Party
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