TheSkeward's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when TheSkeward bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
10%
- Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?NOṀ100
- Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?NOṀ100
- Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th Pacific Time?NOṀ20
- Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022?NOṀ20
- Will Putin get killed by 2022?NOṀ20
- Will Solana have a higher market cap than Ethereum before the end of 2022?NOṀ20
- Will a nuclear bomb detonate by April 1st 2022?NOṀ10
20%
- Will there be a US rail workers Strike or Lockout resulting in work stoppage by union employees for over 12 hours by end of December 2022?NOṀ100
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ20
- Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.005 by March 25?NOṀ20
- Will Zenbu add the Manifold Markets discord bot to the ACX server by April?YESṀ10
30%
- Google Layoffs 2023Q1YESṀ50
- Will SBF be federally indicted by the end of 2022?YESṀ22
- Degenerate Market! Will you dare?NOṀ20
- Will the "Trustworthy. ish." badge be abolished by end of March?NOṀ10
- Will Jair Bolsonaro be reelected president of Brazil?NOṀ10
- Will Zenbu add the Manifold Markets discord bot to the ACX server by April?YESṀ10
40%
50%
60%
- Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?NOṀ63
- Zelenskyy still President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022?YESṀ56
- Will an Apple headset with VR / AR be available to purchase in 2022?NOṀ20
- Will a vaccine for a COVID-19 variant be approved before May 1st?NOṀ20
- This resolves to the direction of highest bet that has a comment.NOṀ20
- Will all nuclear power plants in Germany be shut down in 2022?NOṀ20
- Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?NOṀ20
- Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?YESṀ20
70%
- Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Tech layoffs Q1 2023YESṀ200
- Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?YESṀ200
- Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?YESṀ100
- 11. Will Gamestop’s stock price still be above $100 at the end of 2022?NOṀ100
- Will I be alive to press the "YES" button tomorrow?YESṀ100
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Ethereum be above $2500 on March 2, 2022?YESṀ73
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ50
80%
- Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Manifold Markets Discord have 200 or more members by Tuesday morning?YESṀ500
- Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?YESṀ500
- Will the GOP control the US House of Representatives in 2023?YESṀ500
- Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?YESṀ200
- Tech layoffs Q1 2023YESṀ100
- Skew will get a traunche for xmasYESṀ100
- Will I be alive to press the "YES" button tomorrow?YESṀ100
- Will the GOP control the US House of Representatives in 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Viktor Orbán be the next Prime Minister of Hungary after the 2022 election, held on April 3, 2022?YESṀ85
90%
- A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022YESṀ1,000
- Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Emmanuel Macron re-elected in 2022YESṀ200
- Emmanuel Macron re-elected in 2022YESṀ100
- Emmanuel Macron re-elected in 2022YESṀ100
- Will I be alive to press the "YES" button tomorrow?YESṀ95
- Will Ron DeSantis be the winner of the next Florida gubernatorial election, to be held on November 8, 2022?YESṀ87
- Will Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France?YESṀ50
- Will Ethereum be above $2500 on March 2, 2022?YESṀ30
- Will Tcs companies have a total capitalization of $200m by the end of 2022?NOṀ20
95%
- Will I be alive to press the "YES" button tomorrow?YESṀ126
- Will Ethereum be above $2500 on March 2, 2022?YESṀ50
- Will my upcoming post "Microaddictions" get more than 100 Substack likes?YESṀ20
- #Omicron has a 100% or bigger transmission advantage in practice versus DeltaYESṀ20
- 89. Will Manifold Markets still be alive and active by the end of 2022?YESṀ20
99%
- Will the S&P 500 index stays above 3300 until EOY 2022?YESṀ18,344
- Google Layoffs 2023Q1YESṀ2,337
- Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?YESṀ1,160
- Will I begin dating a new person by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Google Layoffs 2023Q1YESṀ1,000
- Will SBF be federally indicted by EOY?YESṀ904
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried be arrested by expiry?YESṀ861
- Will Ethereum be above $2500 on March 2, 2022?YESṀ600