Will the GOP control the US House of Representatives in 2023?
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YES
This will resolve positively if the House Speaker is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/. #politics #USCongress #USA
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predictedNO 2y

The ABC house trackers seems buggy. It says 201 seats are called for the Democrats and 211 for the Republicans, so there should be 23 seats left. But if you count the individual races, there are 26 left.

predictedNO 2y

Y'all are seriously undercounting Dem chances... still.

It looks like Dems are slightly favored in CO-03, and likely to win CO-08.

It seems as though the Arizona seats (O'Halleran's AZ-02 and the open AZ-06) are favored to go to the Republicans, as there are still lots of E-Day votes to be counted. However, those races haven't been called.

In Nevada, all three Dem seats are favored to stay Dem, and there are a lot of mail-ins left to be counted.

In California, there are promising signs for Democrats. Over a million mail-in ballots have yet to be counted in just LA County, in addition to the heavily D-leaning mail-ins and drop box ballots. As such, it appears that CA-03 might be in play, thought it is likely R.

In Oregon, every Dem will keep their seat except for OR-05, where it's still a tossup and could go either way.

In Washington, Schier is favored and surprisingly, the Theil candidate in WA-03 seems to have put the district in play.

Overall, this market has adequately priced the chances of Democrats, but still, depending on how CA is looking, it should re-orient itself.

predictedYES 2y

@thadthechad How can the market be undercounting while correctly pricing? What should the odds be?

predictedNO 2y

@NathanpmYoung I don't know. I think it's a matter of predicting based on ALL the seats, even ones projected, or the ones currently not projected. If it's the latter, Dems are underpriced.

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