Will my upcoming post "Microaddictions" get more than 100 Substack likes?
45
255
resolved Mar 6
Resolved
YES
Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post talking about ways that short-term activities display some of the same features as long-term addictions . The post is about 500 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 100+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post).
Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ90 of YES
It’s at 101 on my screen so…
bought Ṁ50 of YES
86 after a little over a day, seems like a pretty safe bet.
bought Ṁ2 of NO
Microaddiction is Manifold Markets. Social network … plus gambling.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
link: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/microaddictions?s=r
bought Ṁ20 of YES
has 62 already
sold Ṁ5 of YES
Hardly gonna get any profit
bought Ṁ3 of YES
think this deserves to be at least a little above the base rate - sounds like an interesting topic, not overly technical or anything, introducing a new term/newish concept that'll be useful in conversations going forward
bought Ṁ4 of NO
Buying NO down to the base rate.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Of the 35 significant text posts (posts that aren't open threads, Highlights from the Comments on ___, guest posts, Mantic Mondays, ACX Grants, or link posts, and aren't subscriber only) that I see since September 1, 2021, 9 of them have had 100 or fewer likes. So the base rate for posts like this should be 74%.

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