Tech layoffs Q1 2023
31
93
Ṁ610
resolved Feb 11
Resolved
YES

This market resolves positively if Q1 2023 Tech layoffs > 74,222 according to layoffs.fyi
Resolution will be based on the read of layoffs.fyi chart for Q1 2023 on April 5, 2023. I will give a few days after March 31 to allow all data to be entered. For reference, there are 74,222 employees laid of off in Q4 2022, which is the worst quarter since Q1 2020.

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predicted YES

Proud of this one because I made mana in both directions

Would you resolve this now? It's not even middle of february, and the aggregate layoffs in tech in 2023 have exceeded 100k

bought Ṁ500 of YES

@firstuserhere January itself exceeded the aggregate of Q4, 2022

predicted YES

@firstuserhere

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Sure, thanks for doing the legwork

predicted NO

To make my case for NO here: the majority of tech layoffs may have already occurred in the second half of 2022.

@BrendanFinan And now MSFT has joined - i made a market for that estimation - https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/microsoft-layoffs-estimation-market. We had amazon increase their layoffs planned by 8k, and Google is expected to too. Thats already 3 of the MANGA.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

12th of Jan and we're at 21.7k people laid off, yikes.

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Companies are getting them in before annual review season, it would be odd for the trend to continue in February.

@Nps well the current 24k combined with Amazon's 18k or whatever combined with whatever Google 's number will be, puts the chance of exceeding last quarter significantly more than 40ish percent when i bought in

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