Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?
resolved Jan 20

This market will resolve positively if an official email or announcement from Sundar Pichai or an official Google representative explicitly announces either X% layoffs where X>=5, or X layoffs where X(/#Google employees) >= 0.05. The last public data I'm aware of set the number of Google employees around 160,000, so we'll say that would be layoffs of 8,000 employees.

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bought Ṁ150 of YES

Cutoff for YES is 8k. Sundar Pichai announced 12k, so should resolve YES

predicted YES

140,000 employees (Wikipedia)

So 10% of their workforce.

predicted YES


We’ve decided to reduce our workforce by approximately 12,000 roles

bought Ṁ150 of YES

Microsoft reportedly to cut 5% of its workforce (Sky News)

bought Ṁ30 of NO

US Inflation numbers came as expected, got some Nos.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

surely yes as have a huge workforce >170k and the CEO has recently been talking about how to increase productivity: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/31/google-ceo-to-employees-productivity-and-focus-must-improve.html

What if the layoffs don’t happen all at once, so there’s no single email that says 5% of employees will be laid-off?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Moving further closer to https://manifold.markets/Paul/will-google-layoff-5-or-more-of-eng

In what world does google fire >5% engineers but not <5% employees?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

See also this market, which is the same thing for a shorter timeframe: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/google-layoffs-2023q1

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Updating on recent news about Amazon and Salesforce. Buckle up!

Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

@ManifoldDream testing a different generation methodology

predicted YES

@VivaLaPanda That definitely seems a lot better!

predicted YES


@Gabrielle Used GPT-3 to take the market name and convert it to an actual thematic prompt, instead of just prompting with the market name as-is