Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?
136
112
2k
resolved Jan 20
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve positively if an official email or announcement from Sundar Pichai or an official Google representative explicitly announces either X% layoffs where X>=5, or X layoffs where X(/#Google employees) >= 0.05. The last public data I'm aware of set the number of Google employees around 160,000, so we'll say that would be layoffs of 8,000 employees.

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bought Ṁ150 of YES

Cutoff for YES is 8k. Sundar Pichai announced 12k, so should resolve YES

predicted YES

140,000 employees (Wikipedia)

So 10% of their workforce.

predicted YES

https://blog.google/inside-google/message-ceo/january-update/

We’ve decided to reduce our workforce by approximately 12,000 roles

bought Ṁ150 of YES

Microsoft reportedly to cut 5% of its workforce (Sky News)

bought Ṁ30 of NO

US Inflation numbers came as expected, got some Nos.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

surely yes as have a huge workforce >170k and the CEO has recently been talking about how to increase productivity: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/31/google-ceo-to-employees-productivity-and-focus-must-improve.html

What if the layoffs don’t happen all at once, so there’s no single email that says 5% of employees will be laid-off?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Moving further closer to https://manifold.markets/Paul/will-google-layoff-5-or-more-of-eng

In what world does google fire >5% engineers but not <5% employees?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

See also this market, which is the same thing for a shorter timeframe: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/google-layoffs-2023q1

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Updating on recent news about Amazon and Salesforce. Buckle up!

Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

@ManifoldDream testing a different generation methodology

predicted YES

@VivaLaPanda That definitely seems a lot better!

predicted YES

“Gogle”

@Gabrielle Used GPT-3 to take the market name and convert it to an actual thematic prompt, instead of just prompting with the market name as-is