Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?
resolved Jan 20

This market will resolve positively if an official email or announcement from Sundar Pichai or an official Google representative explicitly announces either X% layoffs where X>=5, or X layoffs where X(/#Google employees) >= 0.05. The last public data I'm aware of set the number of Google employees around 160,000, so we'll say that would be layoffs of 8,000 employees.

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firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ150 of YES

Cutoff for YES is 8k. Sundar Pichai announced 12k, so should resolve YES

SamuelRichardson avatar
Sampredicted YES

140,000 employees (Wikipedia)

So 10% of their workforce.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicted YES


We’ve decided to reduce our workforce by approximately 12,000 roles

mvdm avatar
mvdmbought Ṁ150 of YES

Microsoft reportedly to cut 5% of its workforce (Sky News)

palcu avatar
Alex Palcuiebought Ṁ30 of NO

US Inflation numbers came as expected, got some Nos.

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blumebought Ṁ10 of YES
fleventy avatar

surely yes as have a huge workforce >170k and the CEO has recently been talking about how to increase productivity: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/31/google-ceo-to-employees-productivity-and-focus-must-improve.html

NathanNguyen avatar
Nathan Nguyen

What if the layoffs don’t happen all at once, so there’s no single email that says 5% of employees will be laid-off?

citrinitas avatar
Anton Paquinbought Ṁ20 of YES

Moving further closer to https://manifold.markets/Paul/will-google-layoff-5-or-more-of-eng

In what world does google fire >5% engineers but not <5% employees?

TheSkeward avatar
TheSkewardbought Ṁ100 of NO

See also this market, which is the same thing for a shorter timeframe: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/google-layoffs-2023q1

palcu avatar
Alex Palcuiebought Ṁ10 of YES

Updating on recent news about Amazon and Salesforce. Buckle up!

Paul avatar
ManifoldDream avatar

Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

VivaLaPanda avatar

@ManifoldDream testing a different generation methodology

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicted YES

@VivaLaPanda That definitely seems a lot better!

xyz avatar
Yoavpredicted YES


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@Gabrielle Used GPT-3 to take the market name and convert it to an actual thematic prompt, instead of just prompting with the market name as-is