Will AI wipe out cows before the year 2030?

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Ṁ11k

2030

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ALL

AI might gain consciousness. AI might aquire human-like intelligence. AI intelligence might grow exponentially. And finally, AI might think that cows are an existential threat to themselves or that it would be better off without cows and wipe them all out.

If cows are still around on Jan 1, 2030 this market resolves to NO, even if the AI(s) did wipe out all bulls (this market is only about cows).

If cows are not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES if there's certainty that it was AI(s) that wiped them all out. I'll leave the market unresolved until a consensus is reached and if there's no certainty I'll resolve it N/A.

If cows wipe out AI(s) I'll create a follow up market titled "Will cows wipe out humanity before the year 2031?"

If humanity is not around on market close this market does not resolve.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Will AI wipeout mosquitoes though? Please do.

I bought this as a hedge against my love for burgers. If I lose the enjoyment of eating beef, I'll gain the enjoyment of having made 1700% on this bet.

predicts NO

Feel free to promote any cow/AI doom markets I failed to include.

this is undervalued relative to the one where AI wipes out humanity

Simpler resolution:

/MartinRandall/will-cattle-be-wiped-out-before-the

I assume this does not suffer from the “then who would resolve it?“ Issue, but @TenShino can you please first confirm that you are not a cow?

For example, tell me something that only a goat would know.

predicts NO

@MatthewRitter That's sensitive information and I'm not sure I want to disclose that about myself, but for purposes of this market let's say I'm not a cow nor a cow-hating AI. I'm just an spectator of this cow-AI war.
I'm not a goat either, they don't let me inside the goat tower.

Manifold seems surprisingly bullish on cows.

@Sailfish I think there are some odds that cows will be wiped out by humans first, or at least that it will be unclear who is ultimately responsible.

@Sailfish Also cows are probably less of a threat to AIs, so they probably live longer than humans in case of AI takeover.

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