Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Question

If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.

If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES.

If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.

See also:

@/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d1e8126d974

@/JamesBills/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6e8e547afa66

@/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (1,100 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).