This market resolves to YES if an AI (controlling some sort of robotic body) "wipes out" while skateboarding, surfing, or snowboarding on or before December 31, 2029. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO on January 1, 2030.
More specifically, this market resolves to YES if:
The AI falls off of a skateboard while attempting to ride it, or attempts to do a trick and fails in such a way that it crashes onto the ground
The AI falls off of a surfboard while attempting to ride it (hopefully its body is waterproof...)
The AI falls off of a snowboard while attempting to ride it, or attempts to do a trick and fails in such a way that it crashes onto the ground/into a tree/etc.
If the crash looks like it would make a mid-1990s Totally Rad sports announcer go "oooh, wipeout!" in a faux-pained voice, it's probably sufficient for a YES resolution.
Edit: I should also note that this market does not require the AI to be sentient/conscious/an AGI or superintelligence/etc. - it just needs to be trying to perform a task related to skateboarding, snowboarding, or surfing, and failing. The "wipe out" must have occurred after market creation (so on or after July 3, 2023.)
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@jeremiahsamroo I could totally see a company like boston dynamics building some sort of skateboarding AI robot before 2030. 100% serious
@jeremiahsamroo I agree that they totally could, but I think it’s unlikely that they specifically will.
@Gabrielle Not sufficient for YES - the wipeout must be IRL. Still has the potential to be really funny, though!
@jskf I might add "failing at Wipeout in a particularly spectacular way" to the resolution criteria for this one at some point. I loved that show as a kid.
@brubsby Definitely. I felt like getting more specific, though - I've seen enough videos of various robots falling down trying to walk that I felt like "falls while running" would just jump to 99.99% instantly.
@evergreenemily Is there a minimum skill level before one can wipe-out? It seems like an early milestone on the path to human-level sport.
@MartinRandall Good question (and you're probably right that it's a relatively early milestone.) For the purpose of this market, the minimum skill level is "can stand on a skateboard/surfboard/snowboard, and can make it move without outside assistance." If an AI tries to stand on a skateboard, can't do it at all, and repeatedly falls off and crashes, I don't think that's "wiping out" in a meaningful sense.