MANIFOLD
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
11
Ṁ210Ṁ946
2030
4%
chance

If AIs are still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.

If AIs are not around but AI(s) are because AI(s) wiped them out then this market resolves to YES.

If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The aggressor AI that wipes out other AIs does not necessarily need to survive. For example, an AI could destroy all compute on Earth, eliminating both itself and all other AIs in the process. The market would still resolve YES in this scenario as long as humanity survives.

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I don't understand what you mean by AI wiping out AI. If an AI wipes out the other AIs, then that aggressor AI is still around no?

@CarlosRamirez not necessarily, it could for example destroy all compute on Earth.

If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.

well... yeah

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