Will Manifold (Closed Markets) outperform Matthew Yglesias? Live Tracking
➕
Plus
21
Ṁ2576
resolved Jan 28
Resolved
NO

I ran markets (see below) that closed on 1/14 to capture Manifold predictions vs those that Matt Yglesias made. I will track and update as those markets resolve. If Manifold has a better (lower) Brier score at the end of the year, this resolves "YES", if Matt Yglesias performs better then this resolves "NO". I missed a couple of questions, so they have been skipped over and won't count of either sides Brier score.

Tracked Here

@Shump also has a similar market (that manually noted the question percentage on 1/14 instead of closing):

/Shump/will-manifold-outperform-matthew-yg

Markets that are included:

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8bfb98574714

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-266b7c2aa162

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-preds-vs-mani

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a24b9014b67a

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-0994fc1d699e

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ac337f7734b3

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-47298b074b97

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-97d55af70294

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-8b251cd5bc4f

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ba76519d45af

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-fd46bbc32368

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-95db16a729f4

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-067357ab53fd

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ad74302ba5d6

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-4370c0740718

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a490a278e242

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-ea8ffb76804f

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-ad7891475f27

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8584a119051

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-f855cd3ce262

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-7bb6a3d7da13

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-2beb38c759ad

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-febcd1471c20

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-600cdfbe56c3

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-c61a3d273601

/Shump/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-a

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-0555d8210285

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-8b8700148e14

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-224f6a599675

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a6f929156715

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-a50544dfe80a

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-e381533ea45d

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-9a1cfa16e036

/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-b081b56f0485

/StopPunting/matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-v-204ef9f81ea7

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,051
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3Ṁ152
4Ṁ75
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bought Ṁ1,436 NO

Final Score:

Yglesias - 0.162

Manifold - 0.169

Yglesias wins!!

Gonna get to completing these but open trading back up if anyone is faster than me at it

reposted

Matt takes the lead with the help of election season!

that was before I updated the unemployment rate prediction

reposted

With Putin and the Social Democratic Party win in Portugal added, Manifold still leads 0.041 to 0.112

That KMT prediction was terrible

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