Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Kelly Ayotte elected governor of New Hampshire
4
24
Ṁ68Ṁ110
Jan 15
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.
Matt predicts 60% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Kelly Ayotte elected governor of New Hampshire
49% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
42% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Josh Stein elected governor of North Carolina
66% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinet
44% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: At least one government shutdown
26% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Nicolás Maduro re-election (or “re-elected”) in Venezuela
69% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Josh Stein elected governor of North Carolina
65% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: Republicans maintain their majority in the House
44% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
39% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 preds vs Manifold Time Capsule: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
63% chance