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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Unemployment rate stays above 3%
Mini
13
Ṁ290Jan 15
84%
chance
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1W
1M
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A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Matt predicts 80% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F03Evzjc9l4.png?alt=media&token=2d2f6ff3-892b-478f-b497-3d255252a778)
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