Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation below 3%
2
21
แน30แน90
Jan 15
71%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias' at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.
Matt predicts 80% for this question
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
Matt's calibration for reference:
Get แน200 play money
Related questions
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation below 3%
74% chance
[ACX 2024] Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
62% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation above 2%
74% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Unemployment rate stays below 4%
39% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation above 2%
66% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis point
67% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
70% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
42% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: No Biden change in Bidenโs cabinet
44% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Unemployment rate stays below 4%
47% chance