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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: African National Congress loses its majority in the South African National Assembly
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https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.
Matt predicts 60% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F03Evzjc9l4.png?alt=media&token=2d2f6ff3-892b-478f-b497-3d255252a778)
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