Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Far-right Freedom Party largest in Austrian Parliament
4
62
Ṁ42Ṁ110
Jan 15
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias' at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.
Matt predicts 70% for this question
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
Matt's calibration for reference:
Get Ṁ200 play money
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