Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Fed cuts Interest rates at least fifty basis points
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Fed cuts Interest rates at least fifty basis points
Basic
10
Ṁ238resolved Nov 13
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Matt predicts 90% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ22 | |
2 | Ṁ21 | |
3 | Ṁ8 | |
4 | Ṁ4 | |
5 | Ṁ3 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
How many times will the Fed cut rates in 2025?
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points
99% chance
👨🏻💼 During Which Official 2025 FOMC Meetings Will They Cut/Lower Rates?
How many times will the Fed lower interest rates in 2024?
Will the FED cut rates more than once in 2025?
83% chance
Discourse 2024: Slightly reduced interest rates?
95% chance