How will Manifold die?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.3kṀ4.5k

3069

18%

Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website

15%

People lose interest in it and stop using the site

13%

Manifold is eternal

Not with a bang but a whimper

As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)

with thunderous applause

They go bankrupt

Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death

Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable

Other

Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.

Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance

Overall bans on prediction markets by major governments

Outcompeted in the online marketplace

1.8%

A lover's quarrel

Heat death

Shut down by the U.S. federal government

Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama

this market never resolves 😤

Manifold

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Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)

59% chance

When will Manifold shut down?(READ DESC)

1% chance

Who will be the last Manifold founder left standing?

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

49% chance

Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030?

91% chance

Will someone commit murder for the sake of a Manifold death market by the end of 2030?

3% chance

Will any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?

11% chance

Will someone commit murder to profit on Manifold by 2030?

3% chance

How dramatic is Manifold?

57% chance

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"not with a bang but a whimper" is that a murder drones reference??? O_O

@Eternal no

boughtṀ20 YES

@uair01 wha what’s happening

@root this probably

What do you mean by "this market never resolves 😤"

does this mean that none of the options will ever resolve?

@musuko384 yes. because if was physically possible for me to resolve an answer then manifold aint dead

@Sinclair then why are people betting on it if they won’t get their mana back

@musuko384 their desire to be right on the Internet is stronger than their desire to "own" Internet points.

@musuko384 idk

bought Ṁ1 YES

@musuko384 buy low, sell high

@TheAllMemeingEye

that is hard

@121 did you accidentally buy high and sell low?

@jakgnfdaghfjkahg this is the reasonable version of "heat death" and "manifold is eternal" it ought to be higher than either of those

@digory nah its eternal

bought Ṁ1 YES

Backward induction indicates mana is probably worthless if manifold dies so happy to bet against manifold dying using mana

Why is "As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)" at 0.8% when AI doom by 2030 is still at 10%?

@DavidBolin Because in this market, the plausible short-term gains to AI self-sufficiency aren't being inflated by borderline-magical amounts.

@DavidBolin because the AIs might keep Manifold around

bought Ṁ1 YES

@DavidBolin Because literally impossible to bet it up :(

opened a Ṁ2 NO at 1.0% order

@TheAllMemeingEye Appears to be possible, now. But this is the glitchiest low liquidity I've ever seen. 😅

sold Ṁ0 YES

@4fa yeah lol somehow 1 mana bets are swinging stuff by double digits

bought Ṁ1 YES

@TheAllMemeingEye Enjoy some free mana

I feel like "regulators either A OR B" should be two separate answer choices

@ShadowyZephyr For my answer, I figured either having most of the value ruined by regulatory demands, or being outright shut down, would be thematically similar-enough to make a "bucket". But it could be interesting to have them as different answers.

Great market idea. The general concept of using markets to predict bad futures to avoid them deserves its own term: maybe "via negativa futarchy" or "malfutarchy".