"not with a bang but a whimper" is that a murder drones reference??? O_O

@Eternal no

@uair01 wha what’s happening

@root this probably

What do you mean by "this market never resolves 😤"

does this mean that none of the options will ever resolve?

@musuko384 yes. because if was physically possible for me to resolve an answer then manifold aint dead

@Sinclair then why are people betting on it if they won’t get their mana back

@musuko384 their desire to be right on the Internet is stronger than their desire to "own" Internet points.

@musuko384 idk

@musuko384 buy low, sell high

@TheAllMemeingEye

that is hard

@121 did you accidentally buy high and sell low?

@jakgnfdaghfjkahg this is the reasonable version of "heat death" and "manifold is eternal" it ought to be higher than either of those

@digory nah its eternal

Backward induction indicates mana is probably worthless if manifold dies so happy to bet against manifold dying using mana

Why is "As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)" at 0.8% when AI doom by 2030 is still at 10%?

@DavidBolin Because in this market, the plausible short-term gains to AI self-sufficiency aren't being inflated by borderline-magical amounts.

@DavidBolin because the AIs might keep Manifold around

@DavidBolin Because literally impossible to bet it up :(

@TheAllMemeingEye Appears to be possible, now. But this is the glitchiest low liquidity I've ever seen. 😅

@4fa yeah lol somehow 1 mana bets are swinging stuff by double digits

@TheAllMemeingEye Enjoy some free mana

I feel like "regulators either A OR B" should be two separate answer choices

@ShadowyZephyr For my answer, I figured either having most of the value ruined by regulatory demands, or being outright shut down, would be thematically similar-enough to make a "bucket". But it could be interesting to have them as different answers.

Great market idea. The general concept of using markets to predict bad futures to avoid them deserves its own term: maybe "via negativa futarchy" or "malfutarchy".

@SG malarchy