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Manifold is currently a tiny company with potential. What do you guys think?

Will resolve YES if Manifold publicly announces they are going bankrupt.

Will resolve NO if otherwise.

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Manifold will probably fail, but it's unlikely to formally declare bankruptcy.

It'd be more likely:

  • for people to leave to "pursue other interests"

  • to be bought for a paltry sum by Kalshi or Polymarket, just to remove a competitor

  • to get it running on a single server and for one of the founders to keep it in maintenance mode running cheaply forever

  • to close down the site and dissolve the company, without declaring bankruptcy

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