Will someone commit murder for the sake of a Manifold death market by the end of 2030?

Manifold•Death markets•Crime•Violence

157

Ṁ3.3K

Ṁ461

2050

chance

ALL

resolves YES if a manifold user commits murder for the sake of earning mana on a death market (e.g. will Jimmy Carter die by 2028).

It will resolve YES if the user has been convicted with murder even after 2030, as long as the murder that they're being convicted with actually occurred by 2030.

This is my first market, so any suggestions on how to run it or better wording are very welcome.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Will I be murdered before 2030?

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Do they need to be convicted? Charged? Suspected?

@DavidFWatson If they murder the author of this market in the hope of a YES, will the admins resolve it YES, or will they decide it would be more prudent to resolve it NA?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@DavidBolin

predicts YES

@DavidFWatson They just need to be convicted.

predicts YES

@DavidBolin I would hope the admins resolve yes in that scenario.

predicts NO

@bug Convicted by expiry? Criminal trials can take years right?

predicts YES

@DavidFWatson Ah yeah, you bring up a point. I'd say if the crime was committed before 2030, but the person was convicted afterward, this would still resolve yes. I'll edit the close date of this market.