How dramatic is Manifold? High percentage is high drama, low percentage is low drama, based on vibes. This market will never resolve.

Should represent the current level of drama, and I will distribute mana bonuses to users who update it in a direction that seems correct.

You can set up 1 mana limit orders to get notified when drama happens!

The market is unranked and unsubsidized.

I reserve the right to resolve N/A if this market structure winds up being dumb, but I don’t expect to.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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the pivot has begun pivoting and many of the Discord channels have been full of frantic questions and speculation and complaints again, nonstop since mid-afternoon 😅 feels notably more dramatic today

bought Ṁ10 YES from 65% to 67%

@shankypanky Are you sure? The Discord looks super dead and not very dramatic.

@Eliza the American time zones are theoretically asleep - it's time for Europe to take the baton 🫡

@Eliza how's it looking out there?

sold Ṁ39 YES


Buy the dip?

@Eliza I'm liking this comment, but I don't like this like this comment

bought Ṁ200 YES

Are we not at at least 90% drama right now? Would someone have to get arrested for this to go above 95?

@DanMan314 I gave up on the sanity of this market when people were buying No last week 😂

@Eliza Actually, might be a good idea to N/A this with whatever assistance might be required, before N/A is completely banned.

@Eliza The plan was just to never N/A it, but I could be convinced

@DanMan314 I'm betting no because it's about to be come very boring

Participants in this market are delusional. The entire mana economy is being upended and there is some kind of mysterious announcement coming 'soon' and it's only 44%!!??!?!

I sure hope people are not taking out their realized gains and P R O F I T I N G on the chaos instead of giving a true picture of your drama rating.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Eliza you've seen nothing yet

bought Ṁ250 YES

It's kicking off!

bought Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 80%

I was going to bump this a few hours ago for Austin leaving but I haven't seen a lot of chaos so I'm actually going to bump it down.

This is all a ruse so I can buy it up to like 85 in a couple days.

bought Ṁ90 NO

(It feels very un-dramatic but only because all the air has been let out and everyone is taking a breather, waiting for the coming storm.)

bought Ṁ50 NO

Moving it back down because the medical drama was resolved.

Going up because of drama about whether markets about medical issues should be unlisted

wait i don’t get it
so now that i’ve made the probability lower, does this mean that others will profit if they also buy no?

@AbhinavSrinivas This market is not really designed for profit and the only way it will ever resolve is N/A.

@Eliza i meant not in the market resolving but like @Gabrielle giving us money

opened aṀ100 NO at 43% order

@acc TBH you don't belong in this market, we're trying to make a needle to show how dramatic Manifold is, not trying to trade for profits. Now you've gone and messed up my probability.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Yuna was right we need to be able to discriminate against the bots

bought Ṁ30 YES


This market is going to be hilarious and it's trading at 50%. Bought some Yes (in this one...)

This is one of the best markets on the site.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 55%