Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Resolves YES if any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet in a listed calendar month.

Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.

Losing one cabinet role when multiple are held (and thus remaining in cabinet) does not count as leaving.

All cabinet members being replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election will resolve YES.

If you want to bet which cabinet member(s) leave then you can do so here.