UK General Election 2024 - Will there be a poll where the Labour lead is below 10 points?
Jul 4

With 36 days until the general election, we can expect a lot of opinion polling in the coming weeks.

The last 24 hours have seen the smallest Labour lead of the campaign (JL Partners saying that Labour are 12 points ahead) as well as the largest lead (YouGov saying that Labour are 27 points ahead):

Will there be a poll between now and the general election showing a single digit Labour lead?

This market resolves to YES if there is a poll released showing Labour with a lead of 9 points or less over the second placed party (whether that is the Conservative Party or not) or showing a party other than Labour in the lead.

The market will resolve to NO if the final pre-general election polls are released and Labour have led by 10 points or more in every single poll.

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Polling rules/clarifications:

  • The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.

  • The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count

  • The market will resolve based on the poll's own headline rounding. I will not be looking at the underlying data to see if the result would have been different if it was not rounded to the nearest whole number.

  • Where possible I will use the table at as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.

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Safe to say Manifold didn't like Sunak's debate performance then

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