UK General Election 2024 - How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
Basic
63
40k
resolved Jul 5
100%98.8%
100-149
·
1mo
0.2%
0-49
·
1mo
0.4%
50-99
·
1mo
0.3%
150-199
·
1mo
0.1%
200-249
·
1mo
0.1%
250-299
·
1mo
0.1%
300+
·
1mo

One week into the general election campaign and the Tories remain pretty consistently 20 points behind Labour in the polling averages.

There's an expectation that the polls always tighten as we get closer to an election, but this isn't an iron law and it's possible that even a substantial tightening could still put them on a result that's worse than their 1997 landslide defeat:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-conservative-party-win-few

How many seats will they win in this general election?

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There are a couple of other markets on how may seats the Tories will win, but I thought that these 50-seat buckets are a useful alternative. Here are a couple of the others:

/ManifoldPolitics/uk-general-election-how-many-seats

/Anthem/how-many-seats-will-the-conservativ-89c852a83f80