The UK will have a general election on 4th July.
The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is also the MP for Richmond (Yorkshire). He is expected to win his seat but lose his majority. At this point, it is expected that he will resign or be removed as the leader of the Conservative Party with the new leader of the party taking over as the Leader of the Opposition (assuming they’re even the second biggest party - see /SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9 )
Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP once he steps down? He recently promised in an interview on Loose Women that he would, but this was the same interview where he said that there would not be a summer election!
If Sunak is returned to Parliament and serves out his full term as an MP (whether or not he is still PM or LOTO, and even if there is a very early election), this market will resolve to the YES option.
If Sunak is returned to Parliament but is removed for any reason before Parliament dissolves for the following general election, this market will resolve to the “NO, he will stand down” option.
If Sunak gives us the ultimate “Portillo moment”, this will resolve to the other NO option.
Related questions
Rishi Sunak has said that he will serve out his full term as an MP even if the Tories are wiped out:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-vows-serve-five-33029978
Will this move the market? Or will traders be happy with the prediction that there is a 66% chance that he's lying?
What if he dies (either before the election, or as an mp after the election but before the next dissolution)
@ShakedKoplewitz That will resolve to the “no he will stand down” option.
That’s the closes option to that scenario but it’s such an unlikely scenario that I won’t change the wording!